Tuesday 27 September 2011

What If... Gordon Brown Won the Election?

The speech by Mr Miliband to his party at the Labour party conference in Liverpool has been praised today by many left-wing commentators, who see it as part of the realignment of the party to the left. However, compared to the conference speech of 2007, it pales into insignificance. When Gordon Brown used his 2007 address to announce that he was calling a snap general election, Labour seemed to be on a roll. With Tony Blair gone, and Brown's cool handling of a summer of crises, Labour had shot into the lead in the opinion polls. Brown was also doubtlessly influenced by the example of James Callaghan, who became PM in 1976 but left an election until 1979, by which point his government had failed. As the half of New labour who had been the campaign organiser and produced many of the social policies, Brown was well placed to go to the country as soon as possible.

In comparison, the Conservatives were in turmoil. Despite being leader since December 2005, the youthful David Cameron had failed to fully stamp his authority across his party, with many members being unhappy over his attempts to modernise the party. While Blair had been PM this hadn't really mattered due to his collapsing authority and sinking popularity, but with the expected enemy gone the Tories were caught on the hop. As for the Liberal Democrats, the period after the 2005 election had been a traumatic one for the party, with Charles Kennedy resigning due to alcohol problems and Sir Menzies Campbell failing to make an impact with the public at large.

In the first autumn campaign since 1974, Brown presented to the country a programme he said would "Promote Britain and promote Britishness." This appealed to many people. Also, there were signs of trouble ahead for the economy, and although Labour had been in power for ten years before, people were more worried by the prospect of Conservative cuts than the record of Tony Blair. As for the Conservatives, they stumbled fairly early on, when their promise to all but abolish inheritance tax was attacked as being nothing more than helping the rich. It also soon became apparent that their economic policies were lacking.

When polling day came in early November, Labour's vote share actually rose, as people were attracted to Gordon Brown's agenda of 'Promoting Britishness and Britain'. However, the 2005 result was revealed to have been a fluke, as this translated into a reduced number of seats, leaving Brown with an overall majority of 12. The Tories also saw a modest rise in their seats and votes, but it was not enough to save Cameron, who was ousted as Conservative leader in January 2008 by the 1922 Committee, placing his erstwhile ally George Osborne in the job. The Lib Dems lost 7 seats. It seemed that, for now, Brown was safe.

But then the unexpected happened. The trouble over Northern Rock, and the rapidly darkening economic prospects, convinced Brown that such a precarious majority would not see him through a full Parliament. So the first meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party after the election was astonished to here their leader say he was going to seek a coalition with the Lib Dems. In the talks which followed, Sir Menzies Campbell managed to extract generous terms from Brown, both in terms of policies and government posts. The right wing media both laid into the coalition with humour and malice, saying it would not last the year.

They were wrong. The public quite liked the idea of politicians working together, and the near collapse of the world economy meant that both parties were able to pitch the deal as being in the national interest. It also gave Brown the excuse to ditch those ministers he had been less than happy working with: John Hutton paid dearly for saying that Brown as PM would be "an effing disaster."

With respected economic mind Vince Cable at the Treasury, backed by Alistair Darling, the economy was well placed amidst the economic storm which broke around it from 2008 onwards. Meanwhile, Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary Ed Balls embarked on a huge investment programme to resurrect British industry, while his activities in the City of London caused the banks to walk in fear as some were nationalised, while all were divided into 'investment' or 'high street' banks, as well as heavily taxed.

Away from economics, the government did adopt a number of Liberal Democrat ideas. ID cards were scrapped by the new Home Secretary Alan Johnson, while the Health and Education departments under Charles Kennedy and Simon Hughes took on a distinctly liberal flavour, with the Academies programme being halted in favour of more inclusive comprehensives. A new department, for Climate Change and Energy, under Chris Huhne managed to ban free plastic bags in supermarkets, as well as imposing tough climate change targets; however, the government had to agree to disagree over the issue of nuclear power. Ruth Kelly at Transport was charged with bringing Britain's rail network up to date, and by 2009 work had started on a new London-Manchester maglev, with plans in place to extend it to Exeter and Glasgow. The key Lib Dem demand of political reform was tackled by Sir Menzies Campbell and his protege Nick Clegg, who along with Douglas Alexander and Andy Burnham introduced proportional representation in local elections and provisions for the Alternative Vote and the right to recall your MP after the next general election. These measures helped to soothe public rage over the MPs expenses scandal, which hit all parties badly.

By May 2010 the economy, which had plunged into recession, was starting to grow again, and Brown and Sir Menzies stood down together as party leaders and PM and Deputy PM, saying the time had come to pass the baton on to the next generation. A Cabinet reshuffle ensued; Charles Kennedy's political rehabilitation was completed by him becoming Home Secretary, where he gained the praise of both police and public by patrolling with the police during this summer's riots, while new deputy Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson became a thorn in the side of the SNP as Scottish Secretary. New star Nick Clegg also became a full Secretary of State in charge of the Justice Department, although his attempts to replace shorter jail sentences with community service were mercilessly hounded by the Tories.

Labour also saw changes, with its new deputy leader, John Cruddas, making his mark as Communities Secretary in the way he managed to appeal across the social spectrum and his well thought ideas for local communities. Veteran Alan Johnson became Foreign Secretary, as he had the verve to pull it off. Stephen Twigg, the new Universities Minister, was instrumental in getting the government to abolish tution fees in favour of a time-limited graduate tax. The coalition also broke with political precedent by appointing the first ever MP from Ulster as Northern Irish Secretary, David Ford, the widely respected leader of the non-sectarian Alliance Party.

But all the focus was on the new leaders; could they do enough to secure re-election in 2011/12? With the election being left till 2012 it remains to be seen, but with the Lib Dem's new leader, Chris Huhne, being instrumental in the 2009 Copenhagen Earth Pact and Labour's David Miliband having taken the historic step to throw Britain's clout behind the bid for Palestinian statehood, George Osborne has a huge mountain to climb.

P.S. 2007 General Election Results

Labour- 329 seats- 38.4%
Conservatives- 233 seats- 34.7%
Liberal Democrats- 55 seats- 22.1%
Democratic Unionist Party- 7 seats- 0.9%
Scottish National Party- 6 seats- 1.3%
Sinn Fein- 5 seats- 1.0%
Plaid Cymru- 4 seats- 0.6%
Social Democratic and Labour Party- 3 seats- 0.3%
Ulster Unionist Party- 2 seats- 0.4%
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland- 1 seat- 0.2%
Independent- 1 seat- 0.1%

P.P.S. Brown Cabinet, 2007

Prime Minister- Gordon Brown (Lab)
Deputy Prime Minister and Lord President of the Council- Sir Menzies Campbell (Lib Dem) Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary and First Secretary of State- David Miliband (Lab)
Home Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Defence Secretary- Des Browne (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Health Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Transport Secretary- Ruth Kelly (Lab)
Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Jack Straw (Lab)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Sir Alan Beith (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary- Jacqui Smith (Lab)
International Development Secretary- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Work and Pensions Secretary- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Energy and Climate Change Secretary- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- James Purnell (Lab)
Innovation, Universities and Skills Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Scottish Secretary- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Welsh Secretary- Peter Hain (Lab)
Northern Ireland Secretary- Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Alistair Darling (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Leader of the House of Commons- Harriet Harman (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster - Andy Burnham (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Political Reform Minister- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)

P.P.P.S. Miliband Cabinet, 2010

Prime Minister- David Miliband (Lab)
Chancellor of the Exchequer- Vince Cable (Lib Dem)
Foreign Secretary- Alan Johnson (Lab)
Home Secretary- Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem)
Defence Secretary- John Denham (Lab)
Children, Schools and Families Secretary- Andy Burnham (Lab)
Health Secretary- Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Transport Secretary- Sadiq Kahn (Lab)
Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary- Ed Balls (Lab)
Justice Secretary- Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary- Tim Farron (Lib Dem)
Communities Secretary and First Secretary of State- John Cruddas (Labour Deputy Leader)
International Development Secretary- Simon Hughes (Lib Dem)
Work and Pensions Secretary- John Healey (Lab)
Climate Change Secretary and Deputy PM- Chris Huhne (Lib Dem Leader)
Culture, Media and Sport Secretary- Tom Watson (Lab)
Scottish Secretary and Paymaster General- Jo Swinson (Lib Dem Deputy Leader)
Welsh Secretary- Lembit Opik (Lib Dem)
Northern Ireland Secretary- David Ford (Alliance)
Chief Secretary to the Treasury- Liam Byrne (Lab)
Attorney General- Baroness Scotland (Lab)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister for Political Reform- Ed Miliband (Lab)
Lord President of the Council and Minister for Financial Reform- David Laws (Lib Dem)
Leader of the House of Commons- Jim Murphy (Lab)
Leader of the House of Lords- Lord Steel (Lib Dem)
Universities Minister- Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Olympics Minister- Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Minister Without Portfolio- Douglas Alexander (Lab)

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